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Until last night, the biggest free agent name available to play third base was Mike Lowell. Boston wants him back, Philadalphia yearns for him, and now the Yankees may make him an offer. Lowell had a great offensive season, capped off by winning the World Series MVP. He has a reputation as a good fielder and is a popular guy in the clubhouse. But I’m still going to say it:

Signing Mike Lowell as a free agent this off-season will probably be a mistake. Why? Five reasons:

1. Lowell’s offensive performance in 2007 was well above his established level of performance and can fully be explained by a flukishly high batting average on balls in play. Mike Lowell’s highest batting average before 2007 was .293 in 2004. This year he hit .324. His career high BABIP was .299 in 2004. This year it was .337. Removing those 38 points yields rate stats exactly in line with his career levels:

   Season   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
   2007    .324  .378  .501  .879
   Career  .285  .343  .461  .804
   Diff    .039  .035  .040  .075

   Now, it’s perfectly possible that Dave Magadan, Mr. Cage-Rate, helped Lowell make a real improvement. But rather than think that improvement didn’t effect his isolated power, walk-rate, or anything other than his batting average on balls in play, the more straight forward assumption is that he got a little lucky. Smart teams don’t pay for luck.

   Oh, and if you think any teams might pay for his high RBI total, I’ll point out Lowell’s .358 AVG with runners in scoring position and the fact that he was able to hit behind Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, and Manny Ramirez. Again, neither of those factors are evidence of a repeatable skill. Well, the second one’s repeatable if he stays in Boston, but you know what I mean.

2. Fenway park is a good place to hit and especially rewards hitters who can hit flyball doubles off the Green Monster in left field. If a non-Boston team signs Lowell, he won’t have that advantage any more. Lowell’s always been known as a doubles hitter, spanking at least 35 of them in seven of his eight full seasons. Fenway has a doubles park factor of 1.35, meaning it increases doubles by 35% overall. Yes, Lowell posted similar numbers in Florida, a pitcher’s park, but it’s likely Fenway is covering up some declining skills. (Then again, he does have more doubles on the road than at home during his two seasons with Boston.)
3. Lowell will be 34 years old during the 2008 season. Every free agent signing is a risk, but older players carry more risk. I’m worried about a small letdown in 2008, and then there’s 2009, 2010, and possibly 2011 to worry about, too. The list of 37 year old players who hit like their 33 year old selves is a short one. Again, it’s perfectly possible for Lowell to maintain his current pace, but it’s not something to count on or pay for.
4. Fielding was not actually a strength of Lowell’s this past season and is a skill that clearly declines with age. Two fielding systems based on separate sets of fielding data peg him around average for a third baseman: one is at -6 runs and one is at +5 runs. UZR, the best publicly available fielding measure, puts him at -6, +9, +1, +20, and -7 runs from 2003 through the first half of 2007. You can’t be more solidly average defensively than an average-fielding third baseman.

All that being said, how much is Mike Lowell actually worth? Well, in 2007 he was 3.5 wins better than a replacement player, .337 batting average and all. Assuming free agents sign for about $2.5 million per win on top of the half million league minimum, that puts Lowell as a $9 million player, right at his 2007 Red Sox salary. If you adjust his offensive production down because of his fluky BABIP, he’s more like a $7 to $8 million player. From what’s been reported so far, it seems like two years at $12 million per season is the starting point for his services — definitely not a bargain. If negotiations move towards $13 to $14 million over four years, write your senator and urge him to start federal hearings.

Brett Butler once scored 112 runs in a season while only hitting two homeruns and thirteen doubles. That fun fact plus many more concerning the most RBIs and RUNs without hitting for power at the Stat of the Day Blog.

I’ve had an idea for a project for a few months, and now is a great time to start it. Not only did the 2007 World Series finish last night, but the first big decision for the 2008 season was made during the sixth inning — a day Janus would be proud of.

Here’s what I want to do: for each week of the baseball calendar, make note of what us fans are paying attention to. What is the media covering? Is there a deadline of some sort approaching? Are we gearing up for the All-Star game? Are the winter meetings wrapping up? Much of baseball’s popularity goes beyond the game on the field. The official season lasts seven months, but the off-season is just as much of a season and there are many sub-seasons within each.

So, as a fan, what’s going on this week? What are you following? These can be general events that happen every year or specific things special to 2007. Here are some obvious ones:

• Red Sox win the World Series.
• World Series parade coming up in Boston.
• ARod opted out of his ginormous contract in hopes of even more money.
• Free agents have fifteen days to declare their free agency.
• Baseball coverage is switching full steam towards off-season moves.
• Award winners should be announced soon.

What else?

So evidently Hank Steinbrenner is disappointed that the Yankees didn’t get a chance to discuss anything with ARod and Scott Borus before the big announcement last night. Yes, that’s the same Hank Steinbrenner who refused to meet with Joe Torre before running him out of town.

Or, why Arod is worth $30 million to the Yankees and nobody else.

Most major league organizations wouldn’t do well if they spent their entire payroll on free agents. Free agents are overpriced and tend to be on the wrong side of the aging curve. For the fun of it, let’s see how good a team like the Cardinals would be if they spent their entire $90 million budget on free agents:

$90 Million Isn’t Even Average; $200 Million Is Better
A team of replacement level players making the league minimum would cost about $15 million dollars, leaving $75 million dollars for improving beyond replacement level (about 48 wins). Free agents tend to cost about $2.5 million per marginal win, which would give the team 30 additional wins (75/2.5). 78 total wins isn’t even .500 and is a great reason not to sign free agents as the foundation of your team. They’re pieces to fill holes.

On the other hand, the Yankees $200 million payroll would be expected to buy 74 marginal wins [(200-15)/2.5] for a total of 122 wins. So why don’t the Yankees win 122 games every year? Well, one reason is that they spend their free agent dollars poorly. In 2007, all of these guys cost more than $2.5 million per marginal win (some a lot more): Mike Mussina, Derek Jeter, Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Roger Clemens, Hideki Matsui, Andy Pettitte, Kyle Farnsworth, and Carl Pavano. Oh, and New York paid $9 million to players on other teams. Ouch. (For the record, ARod was 10 wins better than replacement, fully earning his contract.)

You Can’t Sign Twenty $10 Million Players
The other reason 122 wins is a stretch is that there’s a limited number of roster spots that contribute to the team. It’s nearly impossible to fill them all with properly priced free agent talent. Assume that you need to sign nine position players, five starting pitchers, and three top relievers. That’s 17 players to pay with $185 million dollars ($11 million each) which makes each of them 3.5 wins above replacement. In 2007, there were about 100 position players at least 2.5 wins above replacement (those nine only have to average out to 3.5 wins each — some will be above and below that number.) However, only about half of those 100 have ever been eligible for free agency, meaning the Yankees would need to sign one out of every five top position player free agents (again, assuming they could properly identify them). The pitchers would be a similar ratio, I’m sure. I don’t see signing one out of every five players to reasonable contracts as realistic.

How The Yankees Should Handle It
Every off-season, the Yankees identify their holes and then either sign the best available free agents or make a deal for the best available high-priced trade-bait. The problem is that having the money to spend doesn’t mean that there’s the right players to spend it on. Giving Barry Zito $150 million doesn’t make him perform like a $150 million player.

Therefore, like every other team, the Yankees need to develop some talent from within. They need to begin by building like a small-market team: accumulate draft picks, give bullpen roles and back-of-the-rotation spots to young pitchers, and consistently have guys like Robinson Cano available to step in when older players are wisely allowed to leave.

Only after the Yankeees spend their first $75 million intelligently and efficiently should the they do things other teams can’t afford. It’s inefficient spending compared to the first $75 million, but if the Steinbrenners are willing to spend extra to win, this approach will get them the most wins:

1. buy out their own players’ arbitration years — In return, those players will likely commit to a year or two of free agency at below-market value. This is an approach even smaller market teams can take, but the Yankees should do it with anybody of value — it’s cheaper than signing a free agent from another team.
2. international scouting and signings — I don’t mean large posting fees from Japan, as those guys really fall in the same category as MLB free agents. I’m talking about scouting Latin American countries and offering moderate contracts to young players with potential. Not everyone will work out, but throw enough spaghetti and… you know the rest.
3. big-sticker draft picks — This approach is becoming known as the Tiger strategy. Some high school and college players fall in the draft because their demands for signing bonuses scare low-payroll teams. Most of them are still worth the price tag and the Yankees should jump all over them. Recent examples include Andrew Miller and Rick Porcello.
4. the best of the best free agents — The Yankees can’t sign an All-Star at every position, but they should sign future Hall Of Famers whenever possible, even for more than $2.5 million per marginal win. You just can’t spend a full $200 million on only reasonably priced free agents, international players, and draft picks. And for all the fiscal responsibility they’d be showing, the Steinbrenners wouldn’t be happy with a 95-win, $125 million payroll. The last piece of the puzzle is shelling out $30 million per season to Arod and $25 million to Johan Santana. Whenever you can get one player who’s worth 10 wins on their own, you do it — one BMW is better than five Jettas.

The key is to build a foundation of reasonably priced players so that the Yankees are only overspending on the best of the best, not on everybody. If the Yankees learn to develop stud young players to contribute alongside free agent stars, 110-win teams are not an unreasonable expectation. George is right when he says his team should be better given a $200 million dollar payroll.

Todd Helton is one of three players to post two seasons with at least 100 extra base hits. Can you name the other two? Here’s a hint: Albert Belle and Babe Ruth just missed the cut, posting one year with at least 100 XBHs and one with 99 XBHs. And actually, Ruth had two with 99 and one with 97.

Here’s a list of all players with at least five seasons of 80 XBHs:

Player	       Num
Lou Gehrig     10
Babe Ruth	9
Stan Musial	6
Hank Greenberg	6
Alex Rodriguez	6
Willie Mays	5
Albert Pujols	5
Vladimir Guerre	5
Ted Williams	5
Rogers Hornsby	5
Jimmie Foxx	5

More fun in the full article.

For all the talk about the playoffs being a crapshoot (and I agree), this year we may actually end up seeing the two best teams in the World Series (well, the best team from each league, that is.)

Colorado’s already made it, and posted the best run differential in the National League. For some reason they were lumped in with the Diamondbacks as a team that was lucky to make it to the NLCS. But other than a crazy run to end the season, the Rockies shouldn’t be seen as a fluke.

In the American League, both the Indians and Red Sox finished the season with 96 wins, so it’s appropriate that the ALCS is going to seven games. But based on run differential, Boston was the better team, out-Pythaging Cleveland 101 to 92.

So if Boston wins tonight, we really will have the best of the AL versus the best of the NL, which is exactly what the World Series was meant to measure. That’s not to say the best team will win the World Series, but at least we won’t have the fiasco of the ‘06 Cardinals again.

From MLB Trade Rumors:

[The Yankees] believe a package of Melky Cabrera, Chien-Ming Wang, and Ian Kennedy would entice the Twins for Johan Santana. That’s a huge price, but doesn’t seem out of line to me for the best pitcher in baseball.

Listen, I’m the guy who thinks Johan deserves Cy Young votes and Chien-Ming Wang’s 2007 was overrated. But if I’m the Twins’ new GM, this would be a coup as my first major move. In terms of overall talent, this trade might be even for 2007. If you follow the fantasy heuristic that the team getting the best player is getting the better deal, the Yankees win. But it’s not like Wang, Kennedy, and Cabrera are anything to scoff at. Wang’s a top 10 pitcher, Kennedy should be above-average in his first full season with a high ceiling, and Cabrera’s a league-average player in center field.

Once you consider money and contract length, the Yankees might as well be giving the Twins all their YES revenue. Cabrera and Wang have one more year of making nothing, then three years of arbitration. Kennedy’s yet to officially start his first year of service. On the other hand, Santana is only signed for one more season, at $13 million. In general, the Yankees should be looking less for league-average talent and be willing to spend more on top-end guys. But if they can show just a touch of patience, they can sign Santana to a free agent deal next winter, without giving up anything now. How does a 2009 rotation of Santana, Wang, Hughes, Chamberlain, and Kennedy sound? That should rival any offense they throw on the field.

To me, the trade boils down to this — would you rather have Johan Santana for one season, or Wang, Kennedy, and Cabrera for 10?